Avoiding the Guillotine
By Paul Charchian @paulcharchian
Guillotine leagues are really different from standard fantasy leagues. And as such, you'll want to reorient the engrained draft strategies you've employed for years.
The key mental hurdle you need to change: You're not drafting a team to win; you're draft a team that won't lose.
You'll see that mindset play itself out several ways in the topics below.
Strategy No. 1: Build a roster of safe players
You win a guillotine league by not losing for 17 weeks.
The players who help you not lose are the ones who perform predictably well most weeks.
Conversely, the boom-or-bust guys who put up dud games can end your season. When three of your players stink in the same week, you’ll need three touchdowns from your tight end on Monday night to avoid getting chopped.
Strategy No. 2: Avoid early bye weeks
In my experience, nothing contributes to getting chopped more than bye weeks to your best players. Having to bench a star player, without a suitable replacement, makes you a candidate to be chopped.
Compounding matters, early in the season with a lot of teams left alive, your roster is still pretty thin, so you can't easily fill the bye week holes.
So, don’t draft guys with early bye weeks unless you’re getting great value. And even then, don't draft many.
Our GuillotineLeague.com cheat sheet takes bye weeks (among several other factors) into account with our player rankings.
Related, don't take a lot of players with the same bye week. If you've got four starters with a Week 7 bye, you're in serious danger.
Strategy No. 3: Rookies are dangerous
In a guillotine league, your first objective is to survive the early weeks of the season when your roster is thin.
Many rookies take two, three, or four months to become reliable starters. You'll be chopped before then.
Eschew rookies who don't have a clear path to early-season playing time, except as backups who you don't need to start.
Strategy No. 4: Don't draft players from the same team
In a guillotine league, there's a lot of risk in taking multiple players from the same team.
First, they've all got the same bye, a danger discussed in Strategy No. 2 above.
Second, if things go wrong for that team, like an injury to the team's quarterback, your suffering multiplies.
This is true even for one game! If the starting quarterback get knocked out in the first quarter, and you've got his receiver and tight end, you're going to spend the day shredding your fingernails to the quick.
If you follow these guidelines, you'll survive a couple potential chops over the course of the season and that's enough to give you a big advantage.
Our Guillotine League cheat sheet takes bye weeks (among several other factors) into account with our player rankings.
So, who to avoid?
A) Touchdown-dependent players. When Sony Michel scored, he averaged 15 fantasy points per game. In games when he didn’t, he averaged 6. When Mecole Hardman scored, he averaged 12 fantasy points. When he didn’t, he averaged 1.
B) Rushing-dependent quarterbacks. Some quarterbacks who generate fantasy points through scrambling are always a danger for their owners. What happens when a wobbly-armed quarterback doesn’t break off a long scramble or score a rushing touchdown? You’re in trouble.
C) Runners who can’t catch. Most of us (including this site) award points for receptions. Those points help balance out bad rushing games for runners.
Each of these elements are factored into our exclusive Guillotine Danger Grade that we assign every player in our cheat sheets.